Introduction
In this insight article we unveil our Regional Senior Moves Forecasts for the Americas, EMEA, and Asia PAC created using the past 3 years of TALNT data. In this era of perma-crisis it has never been more important to get ahead of the market, recognise important trends and understand the implications for business. For some, an era of stability beckons, whilst for others it will be quite the opposite.
Senior Moves Forecast: Americas 

In the Americas we saw the usual start of year hiring window with 2,000 senior moves in January 2024 (a 60% rise on December 2023 levels) and 1,600 in February. By Q2 moves stabilised at about 1,100 moves

<h3><strong>Introduction</strong></h3>
<p>In this insight article we unveil our Regional Senior Moves Forecasts for the Americas, EMEA, and Asia PAC created using the past 3 years of TALNT data. In this era of perma-crisis it has never been more important to get ahead of the market, recognise important trends and understand the implications for business. For some, an era of stability beckons, whilst for others it will be quite the opposite.</p>
<h3><strong>Senior Moves Forecast: Americas </strong></h3>
<p><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-M9cVq" style="border: none; width: 100%; height: 350px;" title="" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/M9cVq/2/" width="792" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin" aria-label="Interactive line chart" data-external="1"></iframe></p>
<p>In the Americas we saw the usual start of year hiring window with 2,000 senior moves in January 2024 (a 60% rise on December 2023 levels) and 1,600 in February. By Q2 moves stabilised at about 1,100 moves per month, around half the peak level seen in January. This is a high nominal level of churn by historical standards but a little lower than the peaks seen during the ‘Great Resignation’ of 2022 during which moves averaged 1,200 per month outside of the traditional hiring window. The impact of this is that firms are working harder to retain staff, and hence are forced to focus on more short-term business strategies.</p>
<p>On Friday August 2nd there was a large global stock market sell-off with the Nasdaq falling by more than 2.4%. This was on the back of a rise in US unemployment from 3.5% a year ago to 4.3%. Some are saying the Federal Reserve has been too slow to cut interest rates and predict a 0.5% cut in September. All of this points to numbers of moves being somewhat closer to the lower bound of our predictions for the rest of the year, since our forecast was made before this event. July moves figures were already slightly below forecast falling by 6% where we had predicted a 3% rise. However, senior move levels do not always follow the business cycle. Whilst lower business growth and higher unemployment generally reduce job hopping and job vacancies, some businesses will seek fresh leadership in tough times, or might be in a position to profit from budget conscious consumers. We are still predicting a 40% rise in senior moves levels in Q3. Keep an eye out for future insights and use the Executive Moves Platform to stay abreast of market developments at this tense time.</p>
<h3><strong>Senior Moves Forecast: EMEA</strong></h3>
<p><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-mEIH1" style="border: none; width: 100%; height: 350px;" title="" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mEIH1/4/" width="792" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin" aria-label="Interactive line chart" data-external="1"></iframe></p>
<p>The senior moves outlook in EMEA is similar to the outlook in the Americas. There was a 50% rise in moves in January compared to December with 900 moves in January and 800 in February indicating a healthy hiring season before a 30% fall in March. We had expected moves to stabilise around 550 per month for the rest of the year but a big dip in moves occurred in June and July to around 400 per month, putting us on track with the lower bound of our forecast. This happened because Europe is slightly ahead of America in the business cycle, with interest rates already coming down in Britain and the EU whilst the Federal Reserve holds steady. High rates have been detrimental to European growth, something we haven’t seen in America yet.</p>
<p>Expect senior move levels to remain around the lower bound of the forecast for Q3, with a potential uptick to our original forecast (green) in Q4 as lower relative interest rates, greater consumer confidence, and political stability in Europe help to revive EMEA growth. Low growth has made the senior talent market less competitive in EMEA, and we have seen lower remuneration compared to the US in recent years. This has not been good for firms even if lower executive churn provides the leadership stability needed to undertake long-term business strategies. Another risk factor is the possibility of conflict between Israel and Iran. This would have wide-ranging negative consequences for the global economy and financial markets (some airlines are already avoiding the middle east) and could reduce senior move numbers further. Keep an eye out for future insights and use the Executive Moves Platform to stay abreast of market developments at this tense time. </p>
<h3><strong>Senior Moves Forecast: Asia PAC</strong></h3>
<p><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-kW1qI" style="border: none; width: 100%; height: 350px;" title="" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/kW1qI/4/" width="792" height="350" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin" aria-label="Interactive line chart" data-external="1"></iframe></p>
<p>It is more difficult to pinpoint a hiring season for APAC. We saw a 25% jump in senior hires in January 2024 compared to December 2023. However, in previous years we have seen large jumps in the middle of the year. The sporadic nature of senior moves in this region makes forecasting difficult but we expect moves for Q3 and Q4 to average around 400 per month. The seemingly sporadic move numbers are the result of real factors such as different business cultures, as well as difficulties in collecting accurate data for the region due to underreporting in India and China. If China and Japan revive inflation and growth in their economies, expect senior moves to be closer to the upper bound of our forecast. If they don’t and India and Vietnam slow down after a period of overheating, expect moves to be closer to the lower bound. Currently India and Vietnam look set to continue booming, although China and Japan continue to face economic uncertainty, giving credibility to our forecast (dark green, solid line). Keep an eye out for future insights and use the Executive Moves Platform to stay abreast of market developments at this tense time.</p>
<h3><strong>Conclusion </strong></h3>
<p>While the Americas and EMEA are navigating economic challenges with varying impacts on senior hires, AsiaPAC remains unpredictable due to diverse economic conditions and less reliable data. Companies must remain vigilant, adapting their strategies to the evolving market dynamics and leveraging insights to stay ahead. We will continue the hard work of anticipating trends in senior moves, and we’ll update you with the latest actionable intelligence when it’s ready. Watch this space.</p>

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Senior Moves Forecast PART 1: Regional Analysis for the AMERICAS, EMEA and ASIAPAC

Senior Moves Forecast PART 1: Regional Analysis for the AMERICAS, EMEA and ASIAPAC

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