Our latest forecast lifts the lid on executive hires, promotions and departures 
At a Glance

Senior Hiring: Modest hiring in the first half of 2024, with a sharp decline by June. A significant recovery is forecast for October 2024. 
Promotions: Strong promotion activity in the first half of 2024, with potential volatility in the second half, reflecting economic uncertainty.
Departures: High departure rates in early 2024, stabilising in Q2. Expected rise in departures by year-end due to typical adjustments.

 Overview 
Senior executive movements are a key indicator of corporate strategy and market confidence. This forecast is based on the trends in hires, promotions, and departures seen in 2023 and 2024, revealing how companies

<h3><strong>Our latest forecast lifts the lid on executive hires, promotions and departures </strong></h3>
<h3>At a Glance</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>Senior Hiring</strong>: Modest hiring in the first half of 2024, with a sharp decline by June. A significant recovery is forecast for October 2024. </li>
<li><strong>Promotions</strong>: Strong promotion activity in the first half of 2024, with potential volatility in the second half, reflecting economic uncertainty.</li>
<li><strong>Departures</strong>: High departure rates in early 2024, stabilising in Q2. Expected rise in departures by year-end due to typical adjustments.</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong> Overview </strong></h3>
<p>Senior executive movements are a key indicator of corporate strategy and market confidence. This forecast is based on the trends in hires, promotions, and departures seen in 2023 and 2024, revealing how companies are responding to global economic challenges and positioning themselves for future growth.</p>
<h3><strong>Hiring Forecast </strong></h3>
<p><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-R0Dti" style="border: none; width: 100%; height: 345px;" title="People Moves Forecast: Hires" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/R0Dti/3/" width="882" height="345" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin" aria-label="Interactive line chart" data-external="1"></iframe></p>
<p>In 2023, senior executive hiring began modestly and by March had risen nearly 70% since January indicating company expansion. July saw the peak at 1,592 hires, likely driven by improved economic outlooks and global market stability, aligning with upward revisions in GDP growth for key markets like the US, China, and the Eurozone. Hiring slowed at the end of the year in preparation for the typical Q1-24 hiring window.</p>
<p>The first half of 2024 saw more cautious hiring compared to 2023. Although January started stronger, numbers fell sharply to 897 by June due to tight monetary policies, slower global growth, and market volatility, leading to hiring freezes or slowdowns. A recovery is anticipated from August, with hires expected to rise significantly in October (forecast at 1,501), driven by lower interest rates and improving economic sentiment. However, forecasts show a wide range of possible outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in the global economy. </p>
<h3><strong>Promotions Forecast</strong></h3>
<h3><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-HpReU" style="border: none; width: 100%; height: 345px;" title="People Moves Forecast: Promotions" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HpReU/3/" width="882" height="345" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin" aria-label="Interactive line chart" data-external="1"></iframe></h3>
<p>In 2023, senior promotions showed gradual but steady growth in line with intentional corporate strategies. In Q1-23, promotions began moderately, rising to 593 in March as new hires were onboarded. Notably, external hires outnumbered internal promotions 2:1, indicating a preference for external hires in senior roles, though underreporting of promotions could also be a factor. The most significant increases occurred in Q4-23, with November and December recording 694 and 839 promotions, likely due to year-end assessments recognising performance and preparing leadership for the coming year.</p>
<p>H1-24 was stronger than H1-23, as greater economic challenges encouraged consolidatory promotions being favoured over external hires. However, forecasts for H2-24 are uncertain, with projected promotions ranging widely. August and September could see substantial increases, driven by expected easing of monetary policies and rising business confidence, with forecasts as high as 1,309 in September. October to December forecasts suggest continued strong activity.</p>
<h3><strong>Departures Forecast </strong></h3>
<p><iframe id="datawrapper-chart-XLgua" style="border: none; width: 100%; height: 345px;" title="People Moves Forecast: Departures" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XLgua/2/" width="882" height="345" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin" aria-label="Interactive line chart" data-external="1"></iframe></p>
<p>Departures provide a clearer measure of senior executive churn than hires, as hires include new business growth, while departures largely reflect leadership changes. Initially, 2023 departures were low, with 44 in January, but they surged to 123 by March, and departure rates had more than doubled again by August.</p>
<p>The final quarter of 2023 saw the highest departure rates driven by year-end leadership changes. January 2024 marked a dramatic shift with a record 1,109 departures, likely due to corporate restructuring. The churn rate returned to trend in Q2, dropping to 243 in March. This suggests companies had completed most restructuring but were still navigating a challenging global business environment, with regulatory and media scrutiny contributing to higher baseline executive churn, especially in publicly traded firms.</p>
<p>Our forecast indicates a potential rise in departures in Q3/Q4-24 due to typical year-end adjustments, though a more stable economic environment might keep numbers on the lower end.</p>
<h3><strong>Conclusion </strong></h3>
<p>The data on senior executive movements across 2023 and 2024 paints a picture of cautious optimism. While hiring trends suggest a recovery phase on the horizon, the fluctuations in promotions and the significant departures indicate that companies are still grappling with economic uncertainties and the need to align leadership with evolving market demands.</p>

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Are companies making senior hires in the second half of 2024?

Are companies making senior hires in the second half of 2024?

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